Friday, May 29, 2009

Swine Flu

The WHO (and similar agencies) NEVER raise the level of threat of any contaigen without having good reason - we all know of the boy who cried wolf! Sure, they don't always get it right, but who does? They are pretty good with their knowledge of pathogen spread.

And then comes along Swine Flu. The threat levels have been raised, and it seems now that this was for good reason.

(Update: 11 June, 2009:



This announcement by the WHO to raise its global pandemic alert recognises the continuing spread of the virus around the world but it also acknowledges that at this time the H1N1 Influenza 09 is a moderate disease.

WHO Phase 6 is characterised by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region (from the source country). It indicates there is sustained human to human, community level transmission.

Designation of this phase indicates that a global pandemic is underway and that it is no longer possible to contain the virus in a particular geographical area.

The WHO recognises that globally there is good reason to believe that the pandemic, at least in its early stages, will be of moderate severity but that, as we know from experience, the severity of the pandemic can vary from one country to another. The WHO will continue to monitor the situation quite closely.
)

On May 9 2009 the first case of Swine Flu was recorded in Australia. 20 days later there's now 103 confirmed cases. As far as I can tell, the growth has been like this:

Date
No. Cases
No. Deaths
Comment
May 08, 2009
0
0
No confirmed cases
May 09, 2009
1
0
First confirmed case (via USA)
May 20, 2009
5
0
May 21, 2009
10
0
First human-human transmission in .au
May 22, 2009
11
0
May 24, 2009
16
0
26 May, 2009
31
0
27 May, 2009
66
0
28 May, 2009
103
0
28 May, 2009
147
0
29 May, 2009
168
0
30 May, 2009
254
0
31 May, 2009
297
0
01 Jun, 2009
401
0
02 Jun, 2009
501
0
03 Jun, 2009
633
0
04 Jun, 2009
876
0
05 Jun, 2009
1006
0
07 Jun, 2009
1051
0
08 Jun, 2009
1207
0
09 Jun, 2009
1211
0
10 Jun, 2009
1263
0
11 Jun, 2009
1263
0
Pandemic Alert Level raised from 5 to 6 - this is the first global Influenza pandemic in 40 years
12 Jun, 2009
1307
0
14 Jun, 2009
1542
0
15 Jun, 2009
1823
0
16 Jun, 2009
1965
0
17 Jun, 2009
2112
0
18 Jun, 2009
2199
0
19 Jun, 2009
2330
1
26yo man from WA with other pre-existing chronic diseases died in SA - first suspected H1N1 Influenza 09 death in Australia
20 Jun, 2009
2383
1
21 Jun, 2009
2436
1
22 Jun, 2009
2733
1
23 Jun, 2009
2857
2
A Victorian died of H1N1 Influenza 09, laboratory results confirming the virus after death
24 Jun, 2009
2994
3
A second Victorian died of H1N1 Influenza 09, laboratory results confirming the virus after death
25 Jun, 2009
3280
3
26 Jun, 2009
3519
4
A third Victorian has died of H1N1 Influenza 09
27 Jun, 2009
3677
5
A western Australian has been confirmed dead from H1N1 Influenza 09
28 Jun, 2009
3858
5
29 Jun, 2009
4038
7
Two more Victorians have died from H1N1 Influenza 09
30 Jun, 2009
4090
7
01 Jul, 2009
4370
7
2 Jul, 2009
4568
5
An additional 2 Victorian deaths have been attributed to H1N1 Influenza 09
3 Jul, 2009
4958
10
SA 1; Vic 7; WA 1; NSW 1
4 Jul, 2009
5254
10
SA 1; Vic 7; WA 1; NSW 1
5 Jul, 2009
5298
10
SA 1; Vic 7; WA 1; NSW 1
6 Jul, 2009
5733
11
SA 1; Vic 7; WA 1; NSW 2
7 Jul, 2009
6353
13
SA 1; Vic 7; WA 1; NSW 2; NT 1; Tas 1
8 Jul, 2009
6767
13
SA 1; Vic 7; WA 1; NSW 2; NT 1; Tas 1
9 Jul, 2009
7290
18
SA 1; Vic 11; WA 1; NSW 3; NT 1; Tas 1
10 Jul, 2009
7933
18
SA 1; Vic 11; WA 1; NSW 3; NT 1; Tas 1
Now known officially as "Pandemic (H1N1) 2009"
11 Jul, 2009
8006
18
SA 1; Vic 11; WA 1; NSW 3; NT 1; Tas 1
12 Jul, 2009
8337
18
SA 1; Vic 11; WA 1; NSW 3; NT 1; Tas 1
13 Jul, 2009
9050
18
SA 1; Vic 11; WA 1; NSW 3; NT 1; Tas 1
14 Jul, 2009
9828
19
SA 1; Vic 11; WA 1; NSW 4; NT 1; Tas 1
15 Jul, 2009
10389
21
SA 1; Vic 12; WA 1; NSW 5; NT 1; Tas 1
16 Jul, 2009
11194
24
SA 2; Vic 12; WA 1; NSW 5; NT 2; Tas 1; Qld 1
Queensland records its first H1N1 related death.
17 Jul, 2009
11962
31
SA 2; Vic 14; WA 1; NSW 10; NT 2; Tas 1; Qld 1
18 Jul, 2009
12001
31
SA 2; Vic 14; WA 1; NSW 10; NT 2; Tas 1; Qld 1
19 Jul, 2009
12048
31
SA 2; Vic 14; WA 1; NSW 10; NT 2; Tas 1; Qld 1
20 Jul, 2009
13178
32
SA 2; Vic 14; WA 1; NSW 10; NT 3; Tas 1; Qld 1
21 Jul, 2009
14037
37
SA 2; Vic 15; WA 1; NSW 14; NT 3; Tas 1; Qld 1
22 Jul, 2009
14703
41
SA 3; Vic 15; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 1; Qld 1
23 Jul, 2009
15701
43
SA 3; Vic 15; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 2; Qld 2
24 Jul, 2009
16567
46
SA 4; Vic 15; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 2; Qld 4
25 Jul, 2009
16768
47
SA 4; Vic 15; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 2; Qld 5
26 Jul, 2009
16768
48
SA 5; Vic 15; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 2; Qld 5
27 Jul, 2009
17061
50
SA 5; Vic 16; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 2; Qld 6
28 Jul, 2009
19026
50
SA 5; Vic 16; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 2; Qld 6
29 Jul, 2009
20109
53
SA 6; Vic 16; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 3; Qld 7
30 Jul, 2009
20688
58
SA 6; Vic 16; WA 2; NSW 21; NT 3; Tas 3; Qld 7
31 Jul, 2009
21668
61
SA 6; Vic 17; WA 2; NSW 22; NT 3; Tas 3; Qld 8
1 Aug, 2009
21752
62
SA 6; Vic 17; WA 2; NSW 22; NT 3; Tas 3; Qld 8; ACT 1
2 Aug, 2009
21752
63
SA 6; Vic 17; WA 2; NSW 22; NT 3; Tas 4; Qld 9
3 Aug, 2009
22109
67
SA 6; Vic 17; WA 2; NSW 24; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 10
4 Aug, 2009
23692
70
SA 7; Vic 17; WA 2; NSW 24; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 12
5 Aug, 2009
24114
74
SA 7; Vic 17; WA 5; NSW 24; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 13
6 Aug, 2009
24395
77
SA 7; Vic 18; WA 5; NSW 24; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 15
7 Aug, 2009
24949
85
SA 8; Vic 18; WA 5; NSW 30; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 15; ACT 1
9 Aug, 2009
26399
88
SA 8; Vic 18; WA 5; NSW 30; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 18; ACT 1
10 Aug, 2009
26957
92
SA 9; Vic 18; WA 5; NSW 33; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 18; ACT 1
11 Aug, 2009
27663
95
SA 9; Vic 19; WA 8; NSW 32; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 18; ACT 1
12 Aug, 2009
28307
100
SA 9; Vic 21; WA 8; NSW 32; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 21; ACT 1
13 Aug, 2009
28987
102
SA 9; Vic 21; WA 10; NSW 32; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 21; ACT 1
15 Aug, 2009
29833
108
16 Aug, 2009
29833
110
17 Aug, 2009
30111
112
SA 9; Vic 21; WA 12; NSW 33; NT 5; Tas 5; Qld 25; ACT 2
18 Aug, 2009
30993
118
SA 10; Vic 22; WA 15; NSW 33; NT 5; Tas 6; Qld 25; ACT 2
19 Aug, 2009
32224
121
SA 12; Vic 22; WA 15; NSW 33; NT 5; Tas 6; Qld 26; ACT 2
20 Aug, 2009
32799
128
SA 13; Vic 22; WA 16; NSW 36; NT 5; Tas 6; Qld 28; ACT 2
21 Aug, 2009
33179
131
SA 14; Vic 24; WA 16; NSW 36; NT 5; Tas 6; Qld 28; ACT 2
22 Aug, 2009
33228
132
SA 14; Vic 24; WA 17; NSW 36; NT 5; Tas 6; Qld 28; ACT 2
24 Aug, 2009
33511
132
SA 14; Vic 24; WA 17; NSW 36; NT 5; Tas 6; Qld 28; ACT 2
25 Aug, 2009
33844
132
SA 14; Vic 24; WA 17; NSW 36; NT 5; Tas 6; Qld 28; ACT 2
26 Aug, 2009
34180
138
SA 15; Vic 24; WA 19; NSW 36; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 30; ACT 2
27 Aug, 2009
34332
147
SA 15; Vic 24; WA 20; NSW 41; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 33; ACT 2
28 Aug, 2009
34467
150
SA 16; Vic 24; WA 20; NSW 41; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 35; ACT 2
29 Aug, 2009
34508
150
SA 16; Vic 24; WA 20; NSW 41; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 35; ACT 2
30 Aug, 2009
34543
150
SA 16; Vic 24; WA 20; NSW 41; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 35; ACT 2
31 Aug, 2009
34593
150
SA 16; Vic 24; WA 20; NSW 41; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 35; ACT 2
1 Sep, 2009
34924
154
SA 16; Vic 24; WA 23; NSW 41; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 36; ACT 2
2 Sep, 2009
35095
155
SA 17; Vic 24; WA 23; NSW 41; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 36; ACT 2
3 Sep, 2009
35225
160
SA 17; Vic 24; WA 23; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 36; ACT 2
4 Sep, 2009
35444
161
SA 17; Vic 24; WA 23; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 37; ACT 2
5 Sep, 2009
35474
161
SA 17; Vic 24; WA 23; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 37; ACT 2
6 Sep, 2009
35474
161
SA 17; Vic 24; WA 23; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 37; ACT 2
7 Sep, 2009
35579
161
SA 17; Vic 24; WA 23; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 37; ACT 2
8 Sep, 2009
35701
162
SA 17; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 37; ACT 2
9 Sep, 2009
35775
162
SA 17; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 37; ACT 2
10 Sep, 2009
35897
165
SA 18; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 39; ACT 2
11 Sep, 2009
35921
169
SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 48; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 39; ACT 2
12 Sep, 2009
35933
169
SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 48; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 39; ACT 2
13 Sep, 2009
35933
169
SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 48; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 39; ACT 2
14 Sep, 2009
35963
169
SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 48; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 39; ACT 2
15 Sep, 2009
36138
171
SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 48; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
16 Sep, 2009
36173
171
SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 48; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
17 Sep, 2009
36210
172
SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
18 Sep, 2009
36237
172
SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
19 Sep, 2009
36237
172
SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
20 Sep, 2009
36237
172
SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
21 Sep, 2009
36263
172
SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
22 Sep, 2009
36270
172
SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
23 Sep, 2009
36454
177
SA 25; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
24 Sep, 2009
36487
178
SA 25; Vic 24; WA 25; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
25 Sep, 2009
36487
179
* SA 25; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
* The reporting of current hospitalisations has been replaced by weekly reporting of new hospitalisations, as States and Territories have moved from reporting data daily to weekly as at 25 September, 2009.
26 Sep, 2009
36487
179
SA 25; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
27 Sep, 2009
36487
179
SA 25; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
28 Sep, 2009
36495
179
SA 25; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
29 Sep, 2009
36605
180
SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
30 Sep, 2009
36626
180
SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
1 Oct, 2009
36644
180
SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
2 Oct, 2009
36670
183
* SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
3 Oct, 2009
36670
183
SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
4 Oct, 2009
36670
183
SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
5 Oct, 2009
36670
183
SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
6 Oct, 2009
36888
183
SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
7 Oct, 2009
36888
185
SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
8 Oct, 2009
36888
185
SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
9 Oct, 2009
36889
185
* SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
12 Oct, 2009
36889
185
SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
13 Oct, 2009
36910
185
SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
14 Oct, 2009
36936
185
SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
15 Oct, 2009
36940
185
SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
16 Oct, 2009
36942
185
* SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
19 Oct, 2009
36958
185
SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
20 Oct, 2009
36968
185
SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
21 Oct, 2009
36991
186
SA 28; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2




Yes, this is an absolutely standard and to be expected trend for any pathogen. Nothing alarming, just showing there's nothing out of the ordinary as far as infection rates goes. What is interesting is that we appear to be in the area of pandemic/other infections when the maximum number of infected people in the community is about to be reached. This can be seen by the flattening out of the graph from around 26 Aug until present (20 Oct).

Now, these figures are far from official, but have been gleaned from various news sources, and we all know how accurate these can be at times. But it is probably close enough to see a trend!

(Update: I'm now getting all figures from the Health Emergency website or the WHO's Situation Updates. At least that will mean all future figures will be the official figures. I also updated the totals in the list to reflect any totals listed on that site, so these figures are all *very* close to official figures now.)

Will the H1N1 Influenza 09 strain (Swine Flu) wipe us all out? Likely not. Will it affect us all? Likely not. Will it affect us more than the H5N1 strain of Bird Flu? Quite likely.

Right now there's (updated figures) 3205 deaths worldwide and 171 in Australia attributed to Swine Flu. But as the number of affected children increases (and as Swine Flu parties continue to occur, flying in the face of logic), this number may well rise.

So why did I blog this? Purely so people get a chance to see the approximate growth figures in one place instead of needing to read 20 different articles to find them. Keep an eye out for this one and in the mean time, try not to cough in my direction, please. :)

Regards,

The Outspoken Wookie

2 comments:

Ian said...

Interesting results. However, do they raise the threat levels when massive outbreaks of flu occur? What is the growth rate of flu this season? How many ppl died of swine flu in Australia? Let me think??? none? How much media attention is being paid to the 100 or so people? mmmmm, yes, you are right interesting

Hilton Travis said...

G'day Ian,

And no they don't raise the threat levels when massive outbreaks of regular strains of the flu occur because, as I said right at the beginning of the article, if they did this every time a new variant that wasn't causing deaths occurred, we'd all be sick of the boy who cried wolf.

This is the first flu pandemic in 40 years - even the H5N1 strain (Bird Flu) was nowhere near a pandemic.

As of AEST 1700 26 June 2009, there's 4 dead Australians attributed to H1N1 Influenza 09.