And then comes along Swine Flu. The threat levels have been raised, and it seems now that this was for good reason.
(Update: 11 June, 2009:
)
This announcement by the WHO to raise its global pandemic alert recognises the continuing spread of the virus around the world but it also acknowledges that at this time the H1N1 Influenza 09 is a moderate disease.
WHO Phase 6 is characterised by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region (from the source country). It indicates there is sustained human to human, community level transmission.
Designation of this phase indicates that a global pandemic is underway and that it is no longer possible to contain the virus in a particular geographical area.
The WHO recognises that globally there is good reason to believe that the pandemic, at least in its early stages, will be of moderate severity but that, as we know from experience, the severity of the pandemic can vary from one country to another. The WHO will continue to monitor the situation quite closely.
On May 9 2009 the first case of Swine Flu was recorded in Australia. 20 days later there's now 103 confirmed cases. As far as I can tell, the growth has been like this:
Date | No. Cases | No. Deaths | Comment |
May 08, 2009 | 0 | 0 | No confirmed cases |
May 09, 2009 | 1 | 0 | First confirmed case (via USA) |
May 20, 2009 | 5 | 0 | |
May 21, 2009 | 10 | 0 | First human-human transmission in .au |
May 22, 2009 | 11 | 0 | |
May 24, 2009 | 16 | 0 | |
26 May, 2009 | 31 | 0 | |
27 May, 2009 | 66 | 0 | |
28 May, 2009 | 103 | 0 | |
28 May, 2009 | 147 | 0 | |
29 May, 2009 | 168 | 0 | |
30 May, 2009 | 254 | 0 | |
31 May, 2009 | 297 | 0 | |
01 Jun, 2009 | 401 | 0 | |
02 Jun, 2009 | 501 | 0 | |
03 Jun, 2009 | 633 | 0 | |
04 Jun, 2009 | 876 | 0 | |
05 Jun, 2009 | 1006 | 0 | |
07 Jun, 2009 | 1051 | 0 | |
08 Jun, 2009 | 1207 | 0 | |
09 Jun, 2009 | 1211 | 0 | |
10 Jun, 2009 | 1263 | 0 | |
11 Jun, 2009 | 1263 | 0 | Pandemic Alert Level raised from 5 to 6 - this is the first global Influenza pandemic in 40 years |
12 Jun, 2009 | 1307 | 0 | |
14 Jun, 2009 | 1542 | 0 | |
15 Jun, 2009 | 1823 | 0 | |
16 Jun, 2009 | 1965 | 0 | |
17 Jun, 2009 | 2112 | 0 | |
18 Jun, 2009 | 2199 | 0 | |
19 Jun, 2009 | 2330 | 1 | 26yo man from WA with other pre-existing chronic diseases died in SA - first suspected H1N1 Influenza 09 death in Australia |
20 Jun, 2009 | 2383 | 1 | |
21 Jun, 2009 | 2436 | 1 | |
22 Jun, 2009 | 2733 | 1 | |
23 Jun, 2009 | 2857 | 2 | A Victorian died of H1N1 Influenza 09, laboratory results confirming the virus after death |
24 Jun, 2009 | 2994 | 3 | A second Victorian died of H1N1 Influenza 09, laboratory results confirming the virus after death |
25 Jun, 2009 | 3280 | 3 | |
26 Jun, 2009 | 3519 | 4 | A third Victorian has died of H1N1 Influenza 09 |
27 Jun, 2009 | 3677 | 5 | A western Australian has been confirmed dead from H1N1 Influenza 09 |
28 Jun, 2009 | 3858 | 5 | |
29 Jun, 2009 | 4038 | 7 | Two more Victorians have died from H1N1 Influenza 09 |
30 Jun, 2009 | 4090 | 7 | |
01 Jul, 2009 | 4370 | 7 | |
2 Jul, 2009 | 4568 | 5 | An additional 2 Victorian deaths have been attributed to H1N1 Influenza 09 |
3 Jul, 2009 | 4958 | 10 | SA 1; Vic 7; WA 1; NSW 1 |
4 Jul, 2009 | 5254 | 10 | SA 1; Vic 7; WA 1; NSW 1 |
5 Jul, 2009 | 5298 | 10 | SA 1; Vic 7; WA 1; NSW 1 |
6 Jul, 2009 | 5733 | 11 | SA 1; Vic 7; WA 1; NSW 2 |
7 Jul, 2009 | 6353 | 13 | SA 1; Vic 7; WA 1; NSW 2; NT 1; Tas 1 |
8 Jul, 2009 | 6767 | 13 | SA 1; Vic 7; WA 1; NSW 2; NT 1; Tas 1 |
9 Jul, 2009 | 7290 | 18 | SA 1; Vic 11; WA 1; NSW 3; NT 1; Tas 1 |
10 Jul, 2009 | 7933 | 18 | SA 1; Vic 11; WA 1; NSW 3; NT 1; Tas 1 Now known officially as "Pandemic (H1N1) 2009" |
11 Jul, 2009 | 8006 | 18 | SA 1; Vic 11; WA 1; NSW 3; NT 1; Tas 1 |
12 Jul, 2009 | 8337 | 18 | SA 1; Vic 11; WA 1; NSW 3; NT 1; Tas 1 |
13 Jul, 2009 | 9050 | 18 | SA 1; Vic 11; WA 1; NSW 3; NT 1; Tas 1 |
14 Jul, 2009 | 9828 | 19 | SA 1; Vic 11; WA 1; NSW 4; NT 1; Tas 1 |
15 Jul, 2009 | 10389 | 21 | SA 1; Vic 12; WA 1; NSW 5; NT 1; Tas 1 |
16 Jul, 2009 | 11194 | 24 | SA 2; Vic 12; WA 1; NSW 5; NT 2; Tas 1; Qld 1 Queensland records its first H1N1 related death. |
17 Jul, 2009 | 11962 | 31 | SA 2; Vic 14; WA 1; NSW 10; NT 2; Tas 1; Qld 1 |
18 Jul, 2009 | 12001 | 31 | SA 2; Vic 14; WA 1; NSW 10; NT 2; Tas 1; Qld 1 |
19 Jul, 2009 | 12048 | 31 | SA 2; Vic 14; WA 1; NSW 10; NT 2; Tas 1; Qld 1 |
20 Jul, 2009 | 13178 | 32 | SA 2; Vic 14; WA 1; NSW 10; NT 3; Tas 1; Qld 1 |
21 Jul, 2009 | 14037 | 37 | SA 2; Vic 15; WA 1; NSW 14; NT 3; Tas 1; Qld 1 |
22 Jul, 2009 | 14703 | 41 | SA 3; Vic 15; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 1; Qld 1 |
23 Jul, 2009 | 15701 | 43 | SA 3; Vic 15; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 2; Qld 2 |
24 Jul, 2009 | 16567 | 46 | SA 4; Vic 15; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 2; Qld 4 |
25 Jul, 2009 | 16768 | 47 | SA 4; Vic 15; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 2; Qld 5 |
26 Jul, 2009 | 16768 | 48 | SA 5; Vic 15; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 2; Qld 5 |
27 Jul, 2009 | 17061 | 50 | SA 5; Vic 16; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 2; Qld 6 |
28 Jul, 2009 | 19026 | 50 | SA 5; Vic 16; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 2; Qld 6 |
29 Jul, 2009 | 20109 | 53 | SA 6; Vic 16; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 3; Qld 7 |
30 Jul, 2009 | 20688 | 58 | SA 6; Vic 16; WA 2; NSW 21; NT 3; Tas 3; Qld 7 |
31 Jul, 2009 | 21668 | 61 | SA 6; Vic 17; WA 2; NSW 22; NT 3; Tas 3; Qld 8 |
1 Aug, 2009 | 21752 | 62 | SA 6; Vic 17; WA 2; NSW 22; NT 3; Tas 3; Qld 8; ACT 1 |
2 Aug, 2009 | 21752 | 63 | SA 6; Vic 17; WA 2; NSW 22; NT 3; Tas 4; Qld 9 |
3 Aug, 2009 | 22109 | 67 | SA 6; Vic 17; WA 2; NSW 24; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 10 |
4 Aug, 2009 | 23692 | 70 | SA 7; Vic 17; WA 2; NSW 24; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 12 |
5 Aug, 2009 | 24114 | 74 | SA 7; Vic 17; WA 5; NSW 24; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 13 |
6 Aug, 2009 | 24395 | 77 | SA 7; Vic 18; WA 5; NSW 24; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 15 |
7 Aug, 2009 | 24949 | 85 | SA 8; Vic 18; WA 5; NSW 30; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 15; ACT 1 |
9 Aug, 2009 | 26399 | 88 | SA 8; Vic 18; WA 5; NSW 30; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 18; ACT 1 |
10 Aug, 2009 | 26957 | 92 | SA 9; Vic 18; WA 5; NSW 33; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 18; ACT 1 |
11 Aug, 2009 | 27663 | 95 | SA 9; Vic 19; WA 8; NSW 32; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 18; ACT 1 |
12 Aug, 2009 | 28307 | 100 | SA 9; Vic 21; WA 8; NSW 32; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 21; ACT 1 |
13 Aug, 2009 | 28987 | 102 | SA 9; Vic 21; WA 10; NSW 32; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 21; ACT 1 |
15 Aug, 2009 | 29833 | 108 | |
16 Aug, 2009 | 29833 | 110 | |
17 Aug, 2009 | 30111 | 112 | SA 9; Vic 21; WA 12; NSW 33; NT 5; Tas 5; Qld 25; ACT 2 |
18 Aug, 2009 | 30993 | 118 | SA 10; Vic 22; WA 15; NSW 33; NT 5; Tas 6; Qld 25; ACT 2 |
19 Aug, 2009 | 32224 | 121 | SA 12; Vic 22; WA 15; NSW 33; NT 5; Tas 6; Qld 26; ACT 2 |
20 Aug, 2009 | 32799 | 128 | SA 13; Vic 22; WA 16; NSW 36; NT 5; Tas 6; Qld 28; ACT 2 |
21 Aug, 2009 | 33179 | 131 | SA 14; Vic 24; WA 16; NSW 36; NT 5; Tas 6; Qld 28; ACT 2 |
22 Aug, 2009 | 33228 | 132 | SA 14; Vic 24; WA 17; NSW 36; NT 5; Tas 6; Qld 28; ACT 2 |
24 Aug, 2009 | 33511 | 132 | SA 14; Vic 24; WA 17; NSW 36; NT 5; Tas 6; Qld 28; ACT 2 |
25 Aug, 2009 | 33844 | 132 | SA 14; Vic 24; WA 17; NSW 36; NT 5; Tas 6; Qld 28; ACT 2 |
26 Aug, 2009 | 34180 | 138 | SA 15; Vic 24; WA 19; NSW 36; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 30; ACT 2 |
27 Aug, 2009 | 34332 | 147 | SA 15; Vic 24; WA 20; NSW 41; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 33; ACT 2 |
28 Aug, 2009 | 34467 | 150 | SA 16; Vic 24; WA 20; NSW 41; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 35; ACT 2 |
29 Aug, 2009 | 34508 | 150 | SA 16; Vic 24; WA 20; NSW 41; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 35; ACT 2 |
30 Aug, 2009 | 34543 | 150 | SA 16; Vic 24; WA 20; NSW 41; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 35; ACT 2 |
31 Aug, 2009 | 34593 | 150 | SA 16; Vic 24; WA 20; NSW 41; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 35; ACT 2 |
1 Sep, 2009 | 34924 | 154 | SA 16; Vic 24; WA 23; NSW 41; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 36; ACT 2 |
2 Sep, 2009 | 35095 | 155 | SA 17; Vic 24; WA 23; NSW 41; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 36; ACT 2 |
3 Sep, 2009 | 35225 | 160 | SA 17; Vic 24; WA 23; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 36; ACT 2 |
4 Sep, 2009 | 35444 | 161 | SA 17; Vic 24; WA 23; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 37; ACT 2 |
5 Sep, 2009 | 35474 | 161 | SA 17; Vic 24; WA 23; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 37; ACT 2 |
6 Sep, 2009 | 35474 | 161 | SA 17; Vic 24; WA 23; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 37; ACT 2 |
7 Sep, 2009 | 35579 | 161 | SA 17; Vic 24; WA 23; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 37; ACT 2 |
8 Sep, 2009 | 35701 | 162 | SA 17; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 37; ACT 2 |
9 Sep, 2009 | 35775 | 162 | SA 17; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 37; ACT 2 |
10 Sep, 2009 | 35897 | 165 | SA 18; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 39; ACT 2 |
11 Sep, 2009 | 35921 | 169 | SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 48; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 39; ACT 2 |
12 Sep, 2009 | 35933 | 169 | SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 48; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 39; ACT 2 |
13 Sep, 2009 | 35933 | 169 | SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 48; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 39; ACT 2 |
14 Sep, 2009 | 35963 | 169 | SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 48; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 39; ACT 2 |
15 Sep, 2009 | 36138 | 171 | SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 48; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2 |
16 Sep, 2009 | 36173 | 171 | SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 48; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2 |
17 Sep, 2009 | 36210 | 172 | SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2 |
18 Sep, 2009 | 36237 | 172 | SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2 |
19 Sep, 2009 | 36237 | 172 | SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2 |
20 Sep, 2009 | 36237 | 172 | SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2 |
21 Sep, 2009 | 36263 | 172 | SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2 |
22 Sep, 2009 | 36270 | 172 | SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2 |
23 Sep, 2009 | 36454 | 177 | SA 25; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2 |
24 Sep, 2009 | 36487 | 178 | SA 25; Vic 24; WA 25; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2 |
25 Sep, 2009 | 36487 | 179 | * SA 25; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2 * The reporting of current hospitalisations has been replaced by weekly reporting of new hospitalisations, as States and Territories have moved from reporting data daily to weekly as at 25 September, 2009. |
26 Sep, 2009 | 36487 | 179 | SA 25; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2 |
27 Sep, 2009 | 36487 | 179 | SA 25; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2 |
28 Sep, 2009 | 36495 | 179 | SA 25; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2 |
29 Sep, 2009 | 36605 | 180 | SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2 |
30 Sep, 2009 | 36626 | 180 | SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2 |
1 Oct, 2009 | 36644 | 180 | SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2 |
2 Oct, 2009 | 36670 | 183 | * SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2 |
3 Oct, 2009 | 36670 | 183 | SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2 |
4 Oct, 2009 | 36670 | 183 | SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2 |
5 Oct, 2009 | 36670 | 183 | SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2 |
6 Oct, 2009 | 36888 | 183 | SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2 |
7 Oct, 2009 | 36888 | 185 | SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2 |
8 Oct, 2009 | 36888 | 185 | SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2 |
9 Oct, 2009 | 36889 | 185 | * SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2 |
12 Oct, 2009 | 36889 | 185 | SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2 |
13 Oct, 2009 | 36910 | 185 | SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2 |
14 Oct, 2009 | 36936 | 185 | SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2 |
15 Oct, 2009 | 36940 | 185 | SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2 |
16 Oct, 2009 | 36942 | 185 | * SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2 |
19 Oct, 2009 | 36958 | 185 | SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2 |
20 Oct, 2009 | 36968 | 185 | SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2 |
21 Oct, 2009 | 36991 | 186 | SA 28; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2 |
Yes, this is an absolutely standard and to be expected trend for any pathogen. Nothing alarming, just showing there's nothing out of the ordinary as far as infection rates goes. What is interesting is that we appear to be in the area of pandemic/other infections when the maximum number of infected people in the community is about to be reached. This can be seen by the flattening out of the graph from around 26 Aug until present (20 Oct).
Now, these figures are far from official, but have been gleaned from various news sources, and we all know how accurate these can be at times. But it is probably close enough to see a trend!
(Update: I'm now getting all figures from the Health Emergency website or the WHO's Situation Updates. At least that will mean all future figures will be the official figures. I also updated the totals in the list to reflect any totals listed on that site, so these figures are all *very* close to official figures now.)
Will the H1N1 Influenza 09 strain (Swine Flu) wipe us all out? Likely not. Will it affect us all? Likely not. Will it affect us more than the H5N1 strain of Bird Flu? Quite likely.
Right now there's (updated figures) 3205 deaths worldwide and 171 in Australia attributed to Swine Flu. But as the number of affected children increases (and as Swine Flu parties continue to occur, flying in the face of logic), this number may well rise.
So why did I blog this? Purely so people get a chance to see the approximate growth figures in one place instead of needing to read 20 different articles to find them. Keep an eye out for this one and in the mean time, try not to cough in my direction, please. :)
Regards,
The Outspoken Wookie
2 comments:
Interesting results. However, do they raise the threat levels when massive outbreaks of flu occur? What is the growth rate of flu this season? How many ppl died of swine flu in Australia? Let me think??? none? How much media attention is being paid to the 100 or so people? mmmmm, yes, you are right interesting
G'day Ian,
And no they don't raise the threat levels when massive outbreaks of regular strains of the flu occur because, as I said right at the beginning of the article, if they did this every time a new variant that wasn't causing deaths occurred, we'd all be sick of the boy who cried wolf.
This is the first flu pandemic in 40 years - even the H5N1 strain (Bird Flu) was nowhere near a pandemic.
As of AEST 1700 26 June 2009, there's 4 dead Australians attributed to H1N1 Influenza 09.
Post a Comment