Swine Flu

The WHO (and similar agencies) NEVER raise the level of threat of any contaigen without having good reason - we all know of the boy who cried wolf! Sure, they don't always get it right, but who does? They are pretty good with their knowledge of pathogen spread.

And then comes along Swine Flu. The threat levels have been raised, and it seems now that this was for good reason.

(Update: 11 June, 2009:

This announcement by the WHO to raise its global pandemic alert recognises the continuing spread of the virus around the world but it also acknowledges that at this time the H1N1 Influenza 09 is a moderate disease.

WHO Phase 6 is characterised by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region (from the source country). It indicates there is sustained human to human, community level transmission.

Designation of this phase indicates that a global pandemic is underway and that it is no longer possible to contain the virus in a particular geographical area.

The WHO recognises that globally there is good reason to believe that the pandemic, at least in its early stages, will be of moderate severity but that, as we know from experience, the severity of the pandemic can vary from one country to another. The WHO will continue to monitor the situation quite closely.

)

On May 9 2009 the first case of Swine Flu was recorded in Australia. 20 days later there's now 103 confirmed cases. As far as I can tell, the growth has been like this:

Date	No. Cases	No. Deaths	Comment
May 08, 2009	0	0	No confirmed cases
May 09, 2009	1	0	First confirmed case (via USA)
May 20, 2009	5	0
May 21, 2009	10	0	First human-human transmission in .au
May 22, 2009	11	0
May 24, 2009	16	0
26 May, 2009	31	0
27 May, 2009	66	0
28 May, 2009	103	0
28 May, 2009	147	0
29 May, 2009	168	0
30 May, 2009	254	0
31 May, 2009	297	0
01 Jun, 2009	401	0
02 Jun, 2009	501	0
03 Jun, 2009	633	0
04 Jun, 2009	876	0
05 Jun, 2009	1006	0
07 Jun, 2009	1051	0
08 Jun, 2009	1207	0
09 Jun, 2009	1211	0
10 Jun, 2009	1263	0
11 Jun, 2009	1263	0	Pandemic Alert Level raised from 5 to 6 - this is the first global Influenza pandemic in 40 years
12 Jun, 2009	1307	0
14 Jun, 2009	1542	0
15 Jun, 2009	1823	0
16 Jun, 2009	1965	0
17 Jun, 2009	2112	0
18 Jun, 2009	2199	0
19 Jun, 2009	2330	1	26yo man from WA with other pre-existing chronic diseases died in SA - first suspected H1N1 Influenza 09 death in Australia
20 Jun, 2009	2383	1
21 Jun, 2009	2436	1
22 Jun, 2009	2733	1
23 Jun, 2009	2857	2	A Victorian died of H1N1 Influenza 09, laboratory results confirming the virus after death
24 Jun, 2009	2994	3	A second Victorian died of H1N1 Influenza 09, laboratory results confirming the virus after death
25 Jun, 2009	3280	3
26 Jun, 2009	3519	4	A third Victorian has died of H1N1 Influenza 09
27 Jun, 2009	3677	5	A western Australian has been confirmed dead from H1N1 Influenza 09
28 Jun, 2009	3858	5
29 Jun, 2009	4038	7	Two more Victorians have died from H1N1 Influenza 09
30 Jun, 2009	4090	7
01 Jul, 2009	4370	7
2 Jul, 2009	4568	5	An additional 2 Victorian deaths have been attributed to H1N1 Influenza 09
3 Jul, 2009	4958	10	SA 1; Vic 7; WA 1; NSW 1
4 Jul, 2009	5254	10	SA 1; Vic 7; WA 1; NSW 1
5 Jul, 2009	5298	10	SA 1; Vic 7; WA 1; NSW 1
6 Jul, 2009	5733	11	SA 1; Vic 7; WA 1; NSW 2
7 Jul, 2009	6353	13	SA 1; Vic 7; WA 1; NSW 2; NT 1; Tas 1
8 Jul, 2009	6767	13	SA 1; Vic 7; WA 1; NSW 2; NT 1; Tas 1
9 Jul, 2009	7290	18	SA 1; Vic 11; WA 1; NSW 3; NT 1; Tas 1
10 Jul, 2009	7933	18	SA 1; Vic 11; WA 1; NSW 3; NT 1; Tas 1 Now known officially as "Pandemic (H1N1) 2009"
11 Jul, 2009	8006	18	SA 1; Vic 11; WA 1; NSW 3; NT 1; Tas 1
12 Jul, 2009	8337	18	SA 1; Vic 11; WA 1; NSW 3; NT 1; Tas 1
13 Jul, 2009	9050	18	SA 1; Vic 11; WA 1; NSW 3; NT 1; Tas 1
14 Jul, 2009	9828	19	SA 1; Vic 11; WA 1; NSW 4; NT 1; Tas 1
15 Jul, 2009	10389	21	SA 1; Vic 12; WA 1; NSW 5; NT 1; Tas 1
16 Jul, 2009	11194	24	SA 2; Vic 12; WA 1; NSW 5; NT 2; Tas 1; Qld 1 Queensland records its first H1N1 related death.
17 Jul, 2009	11962	31	SA 2; Vic 14; WA 1; NSW 10; NT 2; Tas 1; Qld 1
18 Jul, 2009	12001	31	SA 2; Vic 14; WA 1; NSW 10; NT 2; Tas 1; Qld 1
19 Jul, 2009	12048	31	SA 2; Vic 14; WA 1; NSW 10; NT 2; Tas 1; Qld 1
20 Jul, 2009	13178	32	SA 2; Vic 14; WA 1; NSW 10; NT 3; Tas 1; Qld 1
21 Jul, 2009	14037	37	SA 2; Vic 15; WA 1; NSW 14; NT 3; Tas 1; Qld 1
22 Jul, 2009	14703	41	SA 3; Vic 15; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 1; Qld 1
23 Jul, 2009	15701	43	SA 3; Vic 15; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 2; Qld 2
24 Jul, 2009	16567	46	SA 4; Vic 15; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 2; Qld 4
25 Jul, 2009	16768	47	SA 4; Vic 15; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 2; Qld 5
26 Jul, 2009	16768	48	SA 5; Vic 15; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 2; Qld 5
27 Jul, 2009	17061	50	SA 5; Vic 16; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 2; Qld 6
28 Jul, 2009	19026	50	SA 5; Vic 16; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 2; Qld 6
29 Jul, 2009	20109	53	SA 6; Vic 16; WA 1; NSW 17; NT 3; Tas 3; Qld 7
30 Jul, 2009	20688	58	SA 6; Vic 16; WA 2; NSW 21; NT 3; Tas 3; Qld 7
31 Jul, 2009	21668	61	SA 6; Vic 17; WA 2; NSW 22; NT 3; Tas 3; Qld 8
1 Aug, 2009	21752	62	SA 6; Vic 17; WA 2; NSW 22; NT 3; Tas 3; Qld 8; ACT 1
2 Aug, 2009	21752	63	SA 6; Vic 17; WA 2; NSW 22; NT 3; Tas 4; Qld 9
3 Aug, 2009	22109	67	SA 6; Vic 17; WA 2; NSW 24; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 10
4 Aug, 2009	23692	70	SA 7; Vic 17; WA 2; NSW 24; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 12
5 Aug, 2009	24114	74	SA 7; Vic 17; WA 5; NSW 24; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 13
6 Aug, 2009	24395	77	SA 7; Vic 18; WA 5; NSW 24; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 15
7 Aug, 2009	24949	85	SA 8; Vic 18; WA 5; NSW 30; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 15; ACT 1
9 Aug, 2009	26399	88	SA 8; Vic 18; WA 5; NSW 30; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 18; ACT 1
10 Aug, 2009	26957	92	SA 9; Vic 18; WA 5; NSW 33; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 18; ACT 1
11 Aug, 2009	27663	95	SA 9; Vic 19; WA 8; NSW 32; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 18; ACT 1
12 Aug, 2009	28307	100	SA 9; Vic 21; WA 8; NSW 32; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 21; ACT 1
13 Aug, 2009	28987	102	SA 9; Vic 21; WA 10; NSW 32; NT 4; Tas 4; Qld 21; ACT 1
15 Aug, 2009	29833	108
16 Aug, 2009	29833	110
17 Aug, 2009	30111	112	SA 9; Vic 21; WA 12; NSW 33; NT 5; Tas 5; Qld 25; ACT 2
18 Aug, 2009	30993	118	SA 10; Vic 22; WA 15; NSW 33; NT 5; Tas 6; Qld 25; ACT 2
19 Aug, 2009	32224	121	SA 12; Vic 22; WA 15; NSW 33; NT 5; Tas 6; Qld 26; ACT 2
20 Aug, 2009	32799	128	SA 13; Vic 22; WA 16; NSW 36; NT 5; Tas 6; Qld 28; ACT 2
21 Aug, 2009	33179	131	SA 14; Vic 24; WA 16; NSW 36; NT 5; Tas 6; Qld 28; ACT 2
22 Aug, 2009	33228	132	SA 14; Vic 24; WA 17; NSW 36; NT 5; Tas 6; Qld 28; ACT 2
24 Aug, 2009	33511	132	SA 14; Vic 24; WA 17; NSW 36; NT 5; Tas 6; Qld 28; ACT 2
25 Aug, 2009	33844	132	SA 14; Vic 24; WA 17; NSW 36; NT 5; Tas 6; Qld 28; ACT 2
26 Aug, 2009	34180	138	SA 15; Vic 24; WA 19; NSW 36; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 30; ACT 2
27 Aug, 2009	34332	147	SA 15; Vic 24; WA 20; NSW 41; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 33; ACT 2
28 Aug, 2009	34467	150	SA 16; Vic 24; WA 20; NSW 41; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 35; ACT 2
29 Aug, 2009	34508	150	SA 16; Vic 24; WA 20; NSW 41; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 35; ACT 2
30 Aug, 2009	34543	150	SA 16; Vic 24; WA 20; NSW 41; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 35; ACT 2
31 Aug, 2009	34593	150	SA 16; Vic 24; WA 20; NSW 41; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 35; ACT 2
1 Sep, 2009	34924	154	SA 16; Vic 24; WA 23; NSW 41; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 36; ACT 2
2 Sep, 2009	35095	155	SA 17; Vic 24; WA 23; NSW 41; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 36; ACT 2
3 Sep, 2009	35225	160	SA 17; Vic 24; WA 23; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 36; ACT 2
4 Sep, 2009	35444	161	SA 17; Vic 24; WA 23; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 37; ACT 2
5 Sep, 2009	35474	161	SA 17; Vic 24; WA 23; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 37; ACT 2
6 Sep, 2009	35474	161	SA 17; Vic 24; WA 23; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 37; ACT 2
7 Sep, 2009	35579	161	SA 17; Vic 24; WA 23; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 37; ACT 2
8 Sep, 2009	35701	162	SA 17; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 37; ACT 2
9 Sep, 2009	35775	162	SA 17; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 37; ACT 2
10 Sep, 2009	35897	165	SA 18; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 46; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 39; ACT 2
11 Sep, 2009	35921	169	SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 48; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 39; ACT 2
12 Sep, 2009	35933	169	SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 48; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 39; ACT 2
13 Sep, 2009	35933	169	SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 48; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 39; ACT 2
14 Sep, 2009	35963	169	SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 48; NT 6; Tas 6; Qld 39; ACT 2
15 Sep, 2009	36138	171	SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 48; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
16 Sep, 2009	36173	171	SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 48; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
17 Sep, 2009	36210	172	SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
18 Sep, 2009	36237	172	SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
19 Sep, 2009	36237	172	SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
20 Sep, 2009	36237	172	SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
21 Sep, 2009	36263	172	SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
22 Sep, 2009	36270	172	SA 20; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
23 Sep, 2009	36454	177	SA 25; Vic 24; WA 24; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
24 Sep, 2009	36487	178	SA 25; Vic 24; WA 25; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
25 Sep, 2009	36487	179	* SA 25; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2 * The reporting of current hospitalisations has been replaced by weekly reporting of new hospitalisations, as States and Territories have moved from reporting data daily to weekly as at 25 September, 2009.
26 Sep, 2009	36487	179	SA 25; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
27 Sep, 2009	36487	179	SA 25; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
28 Sep, 2009	36495	179	SA 25; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
29 Sep, 2009	36605	180	SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
30 Sep, 2009	36626	180	SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
1 Oct, 2009	36644	180	SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 49; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 40; ACT 2
2 Oct, 2009	36670	183	* SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
3 Oct, 2009	36670	183	SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
4 Oct, 2009	36670	183	SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
5 Oct, 2009	36670	183	SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
6 Oct, 2009	36888	183	SA 26; Vic 24; WA 26; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
7 Oct, 2009	36888	185	SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
8 Oct, 2009	36888	185	SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
9 Oct, 2009	36889	185	* SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
12 Oct, 2009	36889	185	SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
13 Oct, 2009	36910	185	SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
14 Oct, 2009	36936	185	SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
15 Oct, 2009	36940	185	SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
16 Oct, 2009	36942	185	* SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
19 Oct, 2009	36958	185	SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
20 Oct, 2009	36968	185	SA 27; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2
21 Oct, 2009	36991	186	SA 28; Vic 24; WA 27; NSW 51; NT 6; Tas 7; Qld 41; ACT 2

Yes, this is an absolutely standard and to be expected trend for any pathogen. Nothing alarming, just showing there's nothing out of the ordinary as far as infection rates goes. What is interesting is that we appear to be in the area of pandemic/other infections when the maximum number of infected people in the community is about to be reached. This can be seen by the flattening out of the graph from around 26 Aug until present (20 Oct).

Now, these figures are far from official, but have been gleaned from various news sources, and we all know how accurate these can be at times. But it is probably close enough to see a trend!

(Update: I'm now getting all figures from the Health Emergency website or the WHO's Situation Updates. At least that will mean all future figures will be the official figures. I also updated the totals in the list to reflect any totals listed on that site, so these figures are all *very* close to official figures now.)

Will the H1N1 Influenza 09 strain (Swine Flu) wipe us all out? Likely not. Will it affect us all? Likely not. Will it affect us more than the H5N1 strain of Bird Flu? Quite likely.

Right now there's (updated figures) 3205 deaths worldwide and 171 in Australia attributed to Swine Flu. But as the number of affected children increases (and as Swine Flu parties continue to occur, flying in the face of logic), this number may well rise.

So why did I blog this? Purely so people get a chance to see the approximate growth figures in one place instead of needing to read 20 different articles to find them. Keep an eye out for this one and in the mean time, try not to cough in my direction, please. :)

Regards,

The Outspoken Wookie